Weekly Market Wrap - Week Ending 25 July 2025
New Zealand - Steady momentum and softening inflation
The NZX 50 gained 0.38% over the week, closing around 12,853. Local equities were supported by firm export demand and encouraging inflation data.
June quarter inflation figures came in close to expectations. Tradable inflation eased, giving the Reserve Bank room to consider an OCR cut as early as August. However, non-tradable (domestic) inflation remains elevated, keeping the central bank cautious.
What this means for investors:
Market sentiment is holding steady despite slow consumer activity.
RBNZ now has more room to consider easing if inflation continues to moderate.
Export-focused sectors remain well positioned amid stable global demand.
Australia - Earnings caution creeps in as commodities retreat
The ASX 200 slipped 0.85% this week, closing at 8,666.9. Materials and financials dragged on the market, with iron ore prices down around 1.7%. Major miners like BHP and Fortescue took a hit, alongside softening bank stocks.
Market strategists, including AMP’s Shane Oliver, are warning that valuations across the ASX are starting to look stretched. Earnings season is now in full swing and will be key to supporting current price levels.
What this means for investors:
There’s growing caution in the market after strong year-to-date gains.
The resources and banking sectors are under pressure, especially if earnings disappoint.
Inflation data and earnings results next week could determine short-term direction.
United States - Record highs and rising anticipation
The S&P 500 climbed 1.5% this week, closing at an all-time high above 6,388. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones also saw gains, with earnings and AI enthusiasm helping drive the rally.
Alphabet led the way with stronger-than-expected results and AI updates, while sectors like healthcare and tech continued to outperform. At the same time, economic data including retail sales and jobless claims beat expectations, adding to market confidence.
But investors are now watching closely as several major events line up: the Federal Reserve meets next week, and a US–EU tariff deadline looms on August 1.
What this means for investors:
Tech and healthcare continue to lead, supported by strong earnings and AI themes.
Key risks include any hawkish signals from the Fed and potential trade disruptions.
Expect volatility if earnings from Apple, Amazon, Meta or Microsoft disappoint.
Looking ahead:
RBNZ guidance and NZ business confidence data
Australian CPI and company earnings
US tech earnings, Fed interest rate decision, and global trade headlines