Weekly Market Wrap: Australia, New Zealand & the U.S. (23–27 June 2025)
This week, global markets were shaped by geopolitical developments, interest rate speculation, and strong tech performance in the U.S. Here’s a breakdown of what happened across Australia, New Zealand, and the United States.
United States - Markets Climb to Near Record Highs
Major indices posted strong weekly gains:
S&P 500: ↑ 2.9%
Dow Jones: ↑ 2.8%
Nasdaq: ↑ 3.7%
Key Drivers:
Israel/Iran ceasefire helped cool oil prices and reduce market anxiety.
Tech sector outperformed, led by Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Micron.
Dovish Fed tone: Federal Reserve officials signaled openness to rate cuts, which boosted investor confidence.
Micron earnings beat expectations, sparking a rally in chip stocks.
Economic Trends:
Oil prices dropped 14% for the week.
U.S. dollar had its weakest first half in decades, down 10% YTD.
Jobless claims fell and consumer spending stayed strong, easing recession concerns.
Australia - ASX 200 Dips Slightly After Strong Run
ASX 200 Weekly Change: ↓ 0.5%
The Australian share market broke a 4-week winning streak as oil volatility and global tensions weighed on sentiment.
Weekly Highlights:
Monday: Market fell 0.9% on Middle East fears.
Tuesday: Rebounded 0.95% as oil prices tumbled.
Rest of the week: Fluctuated, ending slightly lower overall.
Sectors in Focus:
Financials outperformed (CBA, NAB), supported by expectations of an RBA rate cut.
Energy lagged due to the oil price plunge.
Tech & Property weakened midweek amid cautious trading.
Materials & IPOs showed strength, particularly on Tuesday.
Outlook:
Inflation data came in softer than expected.
Traders now pricing in an RBA rate cut potentially in Q3.
New Zealand - NZX 50 Steady in Cautious Trade
NZX 50 Weekly Movement: Flat to slightly down, hovering around 12,490
New Zealand markets tracked global cues but remained relatively subdued.
Local Trends:
Early week volatility driven by Middle East headlines.
Stronger export performance helped narrow the trade deficit.
Consumer confidence ticked up slightly but remains low.
RBNZ Outlook:
Interest rates likely to stay on hold for now.
A potential rate cut may come later in 2025 depending on inflation and employment data.
Looking Ahead: What to Watch
U.S.: PCE inflation data, Fed commentary, and key earnings (Nike, Walgreens).
Australia: RBA rate guidance, oil price movements, and inflation expectations.
New Zealand: QSBO business survey, GDP outlook, and monetary policy signals.
Summary
Geopolitical calm and dovish central bank tones lifted U.S. markets to near record highs.
Australia saw a modest pullback after a strong run, with financials outperforming.
New Zealand remained stable amid cautious optimism and improved trade data.
The coming week will be critical as inflation figures and central bank signals shape market direction heading into July.